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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1490
Gabriel Gonzaga

Derrick LewisvsGabriel GonzagaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · Sunday, April 10, 2016Zagreb, Croatia

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:48

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 71% of fights by KO.
  • Gabriel Gonzaga has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Gabriel Gonzaga
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1481
Elo
1490
41
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Gabriel Gonzaga
oldest →
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Oct 13
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14
L
KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15
W
vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricGabriel Gonzaga
2.46
Strikes / min
2.12
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.94
39%
Strike defense
57%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
2.80
52%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1493Strikes20.4 vs 13.7Takedowns0.4 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.52Form0.5 vs 0.0
Derrick LewisGabriel Gonzaga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -9.0|Blue +9.0
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -57.0|Blue +57.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetGabriel Gonzaga

By target zone

15
75% acc · 88%
Head
3
60% acc · 60%
2
40% acc · 12%
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 20%

By position

7
58% acc · 41%
Distance
0
0% acc
9
82% acc · 53%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 40%
1
50% acc · 6%
Ground
3
100% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
0
Gabriel Gonzaga rounds
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:39Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
17 / 25
Sig Strikes
5 / 7
68%
Sig Str %
71%
21 / 29
Total Strikes
6 / 8
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 6
—
TD %
16%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
3:39

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gabriel Gonzaga5 / 76 / 81 / 60
1Derrick Lewis17 / 2521 / 290 / 00

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12