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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1361

Derrick LewisvsDamian GrabowskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · Saturday, February 6, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:17

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Damian Grabowski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Damian Grabowski has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Derrick Lewis has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Derrick Lewis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Damian Grabowski
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1481
Elo
1361
41
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
200.66 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Damian GrabowskiL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Jul 16
L
vs Chase Sherman · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricDamian Grabowski
2.46
Strikes / min
4.00
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
7.65
39%
Strike defense
51%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
0.00
52%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11Δ 3.54 — meaningful gap-3.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1525 vs 1500Strikes21.5 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.3 vs 0.0
Derrick LewisDamian Grabowski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Damian Grabowski(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +120.4|Blue -120.4
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetDamian Grabowski

By target zone

13
45% acc · 93%
Head
1
50% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 7%
Body
0
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

1
25% acc · 7%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
13
50% acc · 93%
Ground
1
50% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
0
Damian Grabowski rounds
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:59
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 30
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
46%
Sig Str %
33%
15 / 33
Total Strikes
1 / 3
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:59
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Damian Grabowski1 / 31 / 30 / 10
1Derrick Lewis14 / 3015 / 331 / 10

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Damian Grabowski

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3