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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Ciryl Gane won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1531
Ciryl Gane

Derrick LewisvsCiryl GaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Ciryl Gane won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:11

Model Prediction: Ciryl Gane wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Ciryl Gane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ciryl Gane at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ciryl Gane has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Ciryl Gane
Blue Corner
+250
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
1481
Elo
1531
41
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
200.66 cm
Reach
205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Ciryl Gane
oldest →
L
SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23
W
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23
W
vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24
L
vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25
W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricCiryl Gane
2.46
Strikes / min
5.29
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.33
39%
Strike defense
60%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
0.68
52%
Takedown defense
47%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11Δ 3.07 — meaningful gap+2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1625 vs 1580Strikes2.5 vs 5.4Takedowns0.5 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.30Form0.9 vs 1.0
Derrick LewisCiryl Gane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Ciryl Gane(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetCiryl Gane

By target zone

8
33% acc · 50%
Head
50
72% acc · 51%
6
55% acc · 38%
Body
16
76% acc · 16%
2
100% acc · 13%
Leg
32
100% acc · 33%

By position

15
42% acc · 94%
Distance
67
75% acc · 68%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
16
94% acc · 16%
0
Ground
15
94% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
3
Ciryl Gane rounds
Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ciryl Gane edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:05
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Round 3Ciryl Gane edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:03
49Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
16 / 37
Sig Strikes
98 / 122
42.3%
Sig Str %
79%
16 / 37
Total Strikes
112 / 136
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
1:21

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ciryl Gane26 / 3526 / 350 / 00
1Derrick Lewis3 / 113 / 110 / 00
2Ciryl Gane23 / 2935 / 410 / 10
2Derrick Lewis5 / 105 / 100 / 00
3Ciryl Gane49 / 5851 / 600 / 00
3Derrick Lewis8 / 168 / 160 / 10

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights13