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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1481

Elo1471

Derrick LewisvsChris DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:36

Model Prediction: Chris Daukaus wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Daukaus at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Daukaus enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Chris Daukaus has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Chris Daukaus is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Chris Daukaus has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chris Daukaus has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Chris Daukaus

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1481

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Chris DaukausL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Feb 21

KOvs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Sep 21

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 22

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 22

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricChris Daukaus

2.46

Strikes / min

6.05

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.64

39%

Strike defense

55%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.00

52%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisChris Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Chris Daukaus(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.6|Blue -10.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetChris Daukaus

By target zone

46% acc · 86%

Head

43% acc · 60%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

75% acc · 30%

By position

46% acc · 79%

Distance

53% acc · 80%

75% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Chris Daukaus rounds

Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 28

Sig Strikes

10 / 19

50%

Sig Str %

52%

14 / 28

Total Strikes

10 / 19

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Daukaus	10 / 19	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Derrick Lewis	14 / 28	14 / 28	0 / 1	0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Chris Daukaus

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8