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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · S-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1467

Derrick LewisvsBlagoy IvanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Blagoy Ivanov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Blagoy Ivanov (53.5%).
Derrick Lewis has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Blagoy Ivanov

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1481

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'11"

200.66 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Blagoy IvanovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tai Tuivasa · Jun 19

vs Augusto Sakai · May 20

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 22

vs Marcin Tybura · Feb 23

vs Alexandr Romanov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricBlagoy Ivanov

2.46

Strikes / min

3.25

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.20

39%

Strike defense

53%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.69

52%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisBlagoy Ivanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Blagoy Ivanov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.9|Blue -14.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetBlagoy Ivanov

By target zone

39% acc · 68%

Head

44% acc · 60%

73% acc · 26%

Body

70% acc · 35%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

33% acc · 29%

Distance

50% acc · 60%

54% acc · 71%

Clinch

57% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Blagoy Ivanov rounds

Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:54

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Blagoy Ivanov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:13

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 68

Sig Strikes

20 / 38

44.7%

Sig Str %

59%

32 / 69

Total Strikes

61 / 83

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

33.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:07

Ctrl Time

3:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Blagoy Ivanov	4 / 5	23 / 24	1 / 2	0
1	Derrick Lewis	8 / 18	9 / 19	1 / 1	0
2	Blagoy Ivanov	9 / 16	13 / 22	2 / 2	1
2	Derrick Lewis	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 1	0
3	Blagoy Ivanov	7 / 17	25 / 37	0 / 2	0
3	Derrick Lewis	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 1	0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Blagoy Ivanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8