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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1481

Elo1535

Derrick LewisvsAlexander VolkovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:49

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkov wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkov at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Volkov has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alexander Volkov has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Alexander Volkov

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1481

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'7"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Alexander VolkovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricAlexander Volkov

2.46

Strikes / min

4.84

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

39%

Strike defense

54%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.54

52%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+1.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisAlexander Volkov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Alexander Volkov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -54.0|Blue +54.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetAlexander Volkov

By target zone

51% acc · 79%

Head

64% acc · 64%

86% acc · 15%

Body

88% acc · 24%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

88% acc · 12%

By position

45% acc · 54%

Distance

68% acc · 73%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

69% acc · 17%

85% acc · 44%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Alexander Volkov rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:37

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 70

Sig Strikes

121 / 171

53.7%

Sig Str %

70.3%

40 / 71

Total Strikes

133 / 183

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

1:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkov	40 / 57	52 / 69	1 / 1
1	Derrick Lewis	15 / 26	16 / 27	0 / 1
2	Alexander Volkov	40 / 60	40 / 60	0 / 1
2	Derrick Lewis	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 1
3	Alexander Volkov	41 / 54	41 / 54	0 / 0
3	Derrick Lewis	18 / 31	18 / 31	0 / 0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18