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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1481

Elo1495

Derrick LewisvsAleksei OleinikUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Saturday, August 8, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:21

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Derrick Lewis has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Aleksei Oleinik

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1481

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

vs Fabricio Werdum · May 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricAleksei Oleinik

2.46

Strikes / min

3.29

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

39%

Strike defense

44%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

1.82

52%

Takedown defense

37%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisAleksei Oleinik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.8|Blue +13.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetAleksei Oleinik

By target zone

83% acc · 97%

Head

25% acc · 50%

100% acc · 3%

Body

50% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

71% acc · 14%

Distance

20% acc · 50%

Clinch

86% acc · 86%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:27

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:21Control

Round 2Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 42

Sig Strikes

2 / 6

81.5%

Sig Str %

25%

35 / 42

Total Strikes

3 / 7

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aleksei Oleinik	2 / 4	3 / 5	1 / 1	2
1	Derrick Lewis	13 / 19	13 / 19	1 / 1	0
2	Aleksei Oleinik	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0
2	Derrick Lewis	22 / 23	22 / 23	0 / 0	0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17