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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Deron Winn won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1374

Deron WinnvsEric SpicelyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, June 22, 2019Greenville, South Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Deron Winn won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDeron Winn: WrestlervsEric Spicely: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Deron Winn wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Deron Winn wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Deron Winn at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eric Spicely threatens submissions; Deron Winn has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Eric Spicely has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Deron Winn

Red Corner

Eric Spicely

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1494

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

6'1"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Deron Winn

oldest →

vs Darren Stewart · Oct 19

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 20

vs Antonio Arroyo · Dec 20

KOvs Phil Hawes · Jun 22

latest

Eric SpicelyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Jul 16

SUBvs Thiago Santos · Sep 16

SUBvs Alessio Di Chirico · Jan 17

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 17

KOvs Darren Stewart · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Deron WinnMetricEric Spicely

4.55

Strikes / min

3.71

6.21

Strikes absorbed / min

5.72

46%

Strike defense

55%

4.28

TDs / 15 min

1.31

40%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.66evenly matched on net striking-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Deron WinnEric Spicely

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Deron Winn(5 fights)Eric Spicely(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.7|Blue -120.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Deron WinnTargetEric Spicely

By target zone

125

40% acc · 74%

Head

44% acc · 83%

85% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 16%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

137

43% acc · 81%

Distance

40% acc · 69%

71% acc · 19%

Clinch

89% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Deron Winn rounds

even

Eric Spicely rounds

Round 1Deron Winn edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:02

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Deron Winn edged it

Sig. strikes77

Takedowns0

Control0:48

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Deron Winn edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:28

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

169 / 367

Sig Strikes

108 / 224

45%

Sig Str %

47%

171 / 369

Total Strikes

108 / 224

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eric Spicely	25 / 61	25 / 61	0 / 0
1	Deron Winn	37 / 89	38 / 90	0 / 2
2	Eric Spicely	37 / 70	37 / 70	0 / 0
2	Deron Winn	77 / 160	77 / 160	0 / 0
3	Eric Spicely	46 / 93	46 / 93	0 / 0
3	Deron Winn	55 / 118	56 / 119	0 / 1

Deron Winn

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Eric Spicely

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6