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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Darren Stewart won · S-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1407

Deron WinnvsDarren StewartUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Friday, October 18, 2019Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Darren Stewart won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDeron Winn: WrestlervsDarren Stewart: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Deron Winn wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Darren Stewart wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Deron Winn at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Stewart enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Darren Stewart has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Darren Stewart has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Deron Winn

Red Corner

Darren Stewart

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1494

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Deron Winn

oldest →

vs Eric Spicely · Jun 19

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 20

vs Antonio Arroyo · Dec 20

KOvs Phil Hawes · Jun 22

latest

Darren StewartL3 streak

oldest →

vs Bevon Lewis · Jun 19

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 20

vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Deron WinnMetricDarren Stewart

4.55

Strikes / min

3.05

6.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

46%

Strike defense

48%

4.28

TDs / 15 min

1.75

40%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.66Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Deron WinnDarren Stewart

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Deron Winn(5 fights)Darren Stewart(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.8|Blue -87.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Deron WinnTargetDarren Stewart

By target zone

51% acc · 86%

Head

47% acc · 95%

100% acc · 3%

Body

75% acc · 5%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 38%

Distance

35% acc · 54%

64% acc · 24%

Clinch

82% acc · 25%

100% acc · 38%

Ground

86% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Deron Winn rounds

even

Darren Stewart rounds

Round 1Deron Winn edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control4:15

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:15

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:34

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 53

Sig Strikes

57 / 119

61%

Sig Str %

52.3%

66 / 98

Total Strikes

77 / 140

6 / 15

TDs

1 / 1

38.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

8:04

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darren Stewart	14 / 20	31 / 38	0 / 0
1	Deron Winn	12 / 12	35 / 38	3 / 6
2	Darren Stewart	21 / 44	23 / 46	0 / 0
2	Deron Winn	7 / 16	10 / 20	2 / 6
3	Darren Stewart	22 / 55	23 / 56	1 / 1
3	Deron Winn	10 / 25	21 / 40	1 / 3

Deron Winn

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12