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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Deron Winn won · U-DEC

Elo1494

Elo1407

Deron WinnvsAntonio ArroyoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Saturday, December 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Deron Winn won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Deron Winn wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Deron Winn wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Deron Winn at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Deron Winn enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Deron Winn

Red Corner

Antonio Arroyo

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1494

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Deron WinnL3 streak

oldest →

vs Eric Spicely · Jun 19

vs Darren Stewart · Oct 19

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 20

KOvs Phil Hawes · Jun 22

latest

Antonio ArroyoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Muniz · Nov 19

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Deron WinnMetricAntonio Arroyo

4.55

Strikes / min

2.82

6.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.02

46%

Strike defense

50%

4.28

TDs / 15 min

1.14

40%

Takedown defense

41%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.66Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Deron WinnAntonio Arroyo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Deron Winn(5 fights)Antonio Arroyo(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.0|Blue -87.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Deron WinnTargetAntonio Arroyo

By target zone

38% acc · 50%

Head

64% acc · 64%

71% acc · 25%

Body

92% acc · 24%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

51% acc · 90%

Distance

72% acc · 96%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Deron Winn rounds

even

Antonio Arroyo rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns4

Control2:21

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Deron Winn edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns4

Control3:41

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Deron Winn edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns4

Control3:27

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 38

Sig Strikes

45 / 62

51.7%

Sig Str %

68.3%

64 / 89

Total Strikes

70 / 87

12 / 16

TDs

0 / 0

77.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:29

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Arroyo	26 / 30	33 / 37	0 / 0
1	Deron Winn	9 / 15	9 / 15	4 / 6
2	Antonio Arroyo	9 / 14	14 / 19	0 / 0
2	Deron Winn	6 / 12	30 / 39	4 / 6
3	Antonio Arroyo	10 / 18	23 / 31	0 / 0
3	Deron Winn	5 / 11	25 / 35	4 / 4

Deron Winn

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Antonio Arroyo

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3