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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1454

Elo1431

Derek BrunsonvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 8, 2015Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:19

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsSam Alvey: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1454

Elo

1431

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricSam Alvey

3.51

Strikes / min

3.28

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

51%

Strike defense

52%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

0.06

85%

Takedown defense

82%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.7|Blue -23.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

59% acc · 96%

Head

22% acc · 50%

100% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 26%

Distance

33% acc · 50%

66% acc · 70%

Clinch

40% acc · 50%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:31

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 45

Sig Strikes

4 / 11

60%

Sig Str %

36%

53 / 71

Total Strikes

6 / 13

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Alvey	4 / 11	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Derek Brunson	27 / 45	53 / 71	0 / 1	0

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23