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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1454

Elo1491

Derek BrunsonvsLyoto MachidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsLyoto Machida: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Lyoto Machida wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lyoto Machida at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Lyoto Machida has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Lyoto Machida

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1454

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 14

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricLyoto Machida

3.51

Strikes / min

2.59

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

1.57

51%

Strike defense

61%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

1.21

85%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonLyoto Machida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.8|Blue +36.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -714.0|Blue +714.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetLyoto Machida

By target zone

47% acc · 80%

Head

33% acc · 67%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 33%

33% acc · 20%

Leg

0% acc

By position

26% acc · 50%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Lyoto Machida rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 24

Sig Strikes

3 / 10

41%

Sig Str %

30%

10 / 24

Total Strikes

3 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lyoto Machida	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Derek Brunson	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 0	0

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16