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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Derek Brunson won · U-DEC
Elo1454
Derek Brunson
Elo1510
Kevin Holland

Derek BrunsonvsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · Saturday, March 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

U-DEC

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Derek Brunson has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
  • Kevin Holland has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Holland
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1454
Elo
1510
42
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20
W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21
L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22
L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23
latest
Kevin Holland
oldest →
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25
L
vs Mike Malott · Oct 25
W
DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricKevin Holland
3.51
Strikes / min
4.24
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
51%
Strike defense
50%
3.14
TDs / 15 min
0.79
85%
Takedown defense
57%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1614 vs 1603Strikes3.5 vs 3.7Takedowns3.1 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.60Form0.8 vs 1.0
Derek BrunsonKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -55.6|Blue +55.6
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

28
38% acc · 65%
Head
28
44% acc · 78%
7
70% acc · 16%
Body
2
50% acc · 6%
8
89% acc · 19%
Leg
6
100% acc · 17%

By position

14
33% acc · 33%
Distance
29
45% acc · 81%
10
100% acc · 23%
Clinch
5
71% acc · 14%
19
48% acc · 44%
Ground
2
67% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Derek Brunson rounds
0
even
1
Kevin Holland rounds
Round 1Derek Brunson edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control4:29
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Derek Brunson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control3:09
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Derek Brunson edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:17
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Derek Brunson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control3:46
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Kevin Holland edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control1:14
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:45Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
43 / 93
Sig Strikes
36 / 74
49.6%
Sig Str %
47.4%
226 / 323
Total Strikes
190 / 236
6 / 12
TDs
1 / 1
59.8%
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
16:55
Ctrl Time
1:47

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kevin Holland3 / 625 / 290 / 00
1Derek Brunson14 / 3563 / 970 / 00
2Kevin Holland13 / 2623 / 370 / 00
2Derek Brunson7 / 2016 / 302 / 51
3Kevin Holland2 / 539 / 450 / 00
3Derek Brunson6 / 1154 / 771 / 10
4Derek Brunson8 / 1251 / 642 / 30
4Kevin Holland8 / 1747 / 570 / 00
5Kevin Holland10 / 2056 / 681 / 10
5Derek Brunson8 / 1542 / 551 / 30

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights27