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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Israel Adesanya won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1454

Elo1464

Derek BrunsonvsIsrael AdesanyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:51

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsIsrael Adesanya: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Israel Adesanya

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1454

Elo

1464

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricIsrael Adesanya

3.51

Strikes / min

4.03

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

51%

Strike defense

55%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

0.05

85%

Takedown defense

76%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonIsrael Adesanya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.2|Blue +10.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +160.0|Blue -160.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetIsrael Adesanya

By target zone

18% acc · 67%

Head

56% acc · 69%

0% acc

Body

75% acc · 23%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

33% acc · 8%

By position

15% acc · 67%

Distance

58% acc · 85%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

67% acc · 15%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Israel Adesanya rounds

Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:34

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

3Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 14

Sig Strikes

13 / 23

21%

Sig Str %

56%

9 / 23

Total Strikes

15 / 25

0 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Israel Adesanya	13 / 23	15 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Derek Brunson	3 / 14	9 / 23	0 / 7	0

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19