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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1454

Elo1405

Derek BrunsonvsIan HeinischUFC Prediction Result

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Saturday, August 17, 2019Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsIan Heinisch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derek Brunson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
Derek Brunson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Ian Heinisch

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1454

Elo

1405

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Ian HeinischL2 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carlos Junior · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Dec 19

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Jun 20

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Feb 21

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricIan Heinisch

3.51

Strikes / min

3.25

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

51%

Strike defense

59%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

1.02

85%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonIan Heinisch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Ian Heinisch(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetIan Heinisch

By target zone

36% acc · 63%

Head

32% acc · 64%

70% acc · 32%

Body

70% acc · 28%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

83% acc · 9%

By position

41% acc · 85%

Distance

38% acc · 84%

78% acc · 9%

Clinch

67% acc · 14%

83% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Ian Heinisch rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:58

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:38

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns2

Control0:37

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 185

Sig Strikes

58 / 143

43.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

102 / 207

Total Strikes

65 / 150

2 / 10

TDs

0 / 8

13.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ian Heinisch	19 / 43	21 / 45	0 / 2
1	Derek Brunson	16 / 42	27 / 54	0 / 4
2	Ian Heinisch	13 / 34	13 / 34	0 / 5
2	Derek Brunson	29 / 55	35 / 61	0 / 1
3	Ian Heinisch	26 / 66	31 / 71	0 / 1
3	Derek Brunson	36 / 88	40 / 92	2 / 5

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Ian Heinisch

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7