← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1454

Elo1492

Derek BrunsonvsElias TheodorouUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsElias Theodorou: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Elias Theodorou enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Derek Brunson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Elias Theodorou

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1454

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Elias TheodorouW3 streak

oldest →

vs Cezar Ferreira · Feb 17

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Trevor Smith · May 18

vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricElias Theodorou

3.51

Strikes / min

4.19

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

51%

Strike defense

53%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

1.27

85%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonElias Theodorou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Elias Theodorou(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.3|Blue +37.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetElias Theodorou

By target zone

55% acc · 61%

Head

18% acc · 25%

65% acc · 20%

Body

79% acc · 42%

73% acc · 20%

Leg

46% acc · 34%

By position

55% acc · 80%

Distance

35% acc · 82%

86% acc · 11%

Clinch

60% acc · 18%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Elias Theodorou rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:23

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:33

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:21

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 94

Sig Strikes

65 / 170

59%

Sig Str %

38%

65 / 103

Total Strikes

87 / 194

4 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

35.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:17

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elias Theodorou	16 / 42	25 / 51	0 / 0
1	Derek Brunson	14 / 24	16 / 26	2 / 3
2	Elias Theodorou	25 / 68	34 / 79	0 / 1
2	Derek Brunson	22 / 37	26 / 41	0 / 1
3	Elias Theodorou	24 / 60	28 / 64	0 / 0
3	Derek Brunson	20 / 33	23 / 36	2 / 5

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11