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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1454

Elo1513

Derek BrunsonvsEdmen ShahbazyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Saturday, August 1, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:26

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsEdmen Shahbazyan: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan wins(81.2%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edmen Shahbazyan at -360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Edmen Shahbazyan has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Edmen Shahbazyan is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Derek Brunson has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Edmen Shahbazyan

Blue Corner

+275

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1454

Elo

1513

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Edmen Shahbazyan

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 24

KOvs Dylan Budka · Feb 25

vs Andre Petroski · Jun 25

KOvs Andre Muniz · Oct 25

DECvs Brendan Allen · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricEdmen Shahbazyan

3.51

Strikes / min

3.80

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

51%

Strike defense

49%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

1.62

85%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonEdmen Shahbazyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Edmen Shahbazyan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.3|Blue +58.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetEdmen Shahbazyan

By target zone

55% acc · 66%

Head

34% acc · 49%

71% acc · 17%

Body

82% acc · 51%

83% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 60%

Distance

41% acc · 74%

53% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 26%

79% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Edmen Shahbazyan rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:59

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns2

Control2:01

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:06

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 145

Sig Strikes

35 / 72

57%

Sig Str %

46.5%

107 / 164

Total Strikes

38 / 75

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:06

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Edmen Shahbazyan	24 / 41	25 / 42	0 / 0
1	Derek Brunson	29 / 50	32 / 53	1 / 3
2	Edmen Shahbazyan	11 / 31	13 / 33	0 / 0
2	Derek Brunson	54 / 85	69 / 100	2 / 4
3	Edmen Shahbazyan	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
3	Derek Brunson	5 / 10	6 / 11	1 / 1

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Edmen Shahbazyan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights15