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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dricus Du Plessis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1454

Elo1542

Dricus Du Plessis editorial illustration

Derek BrunsonvsDricus Du PlessisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dricus Du Plessis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:59

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsDricus Du Plessis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis wins(84.7%)

Actual result: Dricus Du Plessis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dricus Du Plessis at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derek Brunson has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dricus Du Plessis (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Dricus Du Plessis

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1454

Elo

1542

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek Brunson

oldest →

vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

latest

Dricus Du Plessis

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24

SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25

DECvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricDricus Du Plessis

3.51

Strikes / min

5.18

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

51%

Strike defense

52%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

2.22

85%

Takedown defense

34%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonDricus Du Plessis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -87.7|Blue +87.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetDricus Du Plessis

By target zone

38% acc · 73%

Head

57% acc · 77%

75% acc · 24%

Body

89% acc · 11%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

89% acc · 11%

By position

41% acc · 81%

Distance

56% acc · 75%

60% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

80% acc · 11%

Ground

88% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Dricus Du Plessis rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:28

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

62Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 84

Sig Strikes

71 / 115

46%

Sig Str %

62.5%

43 / 90

Total Strikes

84 / 132

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:30

Ctrl Time

1:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dricus Du Plessis	9 / 14	16 / 24	0 / 1	1
1	Derek Brunson	12 / 23	18 / 29	1 / 1	1
2	Dricus Du Plessis	62 / 101	68 / 108	1 / 1	0
2	Derek Brunson	25 / 61	25 / 61	0 / 1	0

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Dricus Du Plessis

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11