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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1454

Elo1366

Derek BrunsonvsDaniel KellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · Saturday, June 10, 2017Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:16

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsDaniel Kelly: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Kelly at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Daniel Kelly has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Daniel Kelly has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Derek Brunson has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Daniel Kelly

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1454

Elo

1366

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Daniel KellyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16

vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16

vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17

vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17

KOvs Tom Breese · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricDaniel Kelly

3.51

Strikes / min

3.62

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.64

51%

Strike defense

61%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

1.86

85%

Takedown defense

78%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonDaniel Kelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Daniel Kelly(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.7|Blue -88.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetDaniel Kelly

By target zone

46% acc · 75%

Head

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

31% acc · 50%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Daniel Kelly rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 17

Sig Strikes

1 / 4

47%

Sig Str %

25%

8 / 17

Total Strikes

1 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Kelly	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Derek Brunson	8 / 17	8 / 17	0 / 0	0

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10