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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · SUB R1

Elo1454

Elo1353

Derek BrunsonvsBrian HoustonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · Wednesday, November 6, 2013Fort Campbell, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:48

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(85.1%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Brian Houston

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1454

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Brian Houston

oldest →

vs Trevor Smith · Jan 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricBrian Houston

3.51

Strikes / min

1.90

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

51%

Strike defense

53%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

0.95

85%

Takedown defense

87%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap-1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonBrian Houston

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Brian Houston(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +101.5|Blue -101.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetBrian Houston

By target zone

100% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Brian Houston rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:30

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 2

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

50%

Sig Str %

1 / 2

Total Strikes

0 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Houston	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Derek Brunson	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	1

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Brian Houston

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2