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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dusko Todorovic won · KO/TKO

Elo1389

Elo1494

Dequan TownsendvsDusko TodorovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · Saturday, October 3, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Dusko Todorovic won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Dusko Todorovic wins(75.7%)

Actual result: Dusko Todorovic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dusko Todorovic at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dequan Townsend enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dusko Todorovic is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Dequan Townsend has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Dusko Todorovic has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dequan Townsend has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dequan Townsend

Red Corner

Dusko Todorovic

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1389

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dequan TownsendL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dalcha Lungiambula · Jun 19

vs Bevon Lewis · Jan 20

vs Devin Clark · Feb 20

latest

Dusko Todorovic

oldest →

KOvs Jordan Wright · Oct 22

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 23

KOvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Nov 24

vs Zach Reese · May 25

SUBvs Jose Daniel Medina · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dequan TownsendMetricDusko Todorovic

1.23

Strikes / min

4.73

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

38%

Strike defense

48%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.77

46%

Takedown defense

42%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.69Δ 3.02 — meaningful gap+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dequan TownsendDusko Todorovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dequan Townsend(4 fights)Dusko Todorovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -105.1|Blue +105.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dequan TownsendTargetDusko Todorovic

By target zone

18% acc · 38%

Head

58% acc · 78%

55% acc · 46%

Body

92% acc · 13%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

26% acc · 77%

Distance

58% acc · 46%

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

85% acc · 20%

Ground

62% acc · 34%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dequan Townsend rounds

even

Dusko Todorovic rounds

Round 1Dusko Todorovic edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:18

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 2Dusko Todorovic edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 41

Sig Strikes

85 / 134

26.5%

Sig Str %

62%

21 / 49

Total Strikes

109 / 167

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dusko Todorovic	53 / 75	65 / 89	0 / 0
1	Dequan Townsend	11 / 29	17 / 35	0 / 0
2	Dusko Todorovic	32 / 59	44 / 78	1 / 2
2	Dequan Townsend	2 / 12	4 / 14	0 / 0

Dequan Townsend

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Dusko Todorovic

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10