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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Tatsuya Kawajiri won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1358

Dennis SivervsTatsuya KawajiriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · Saturday, June 20, 2015Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Tatsuya Kawajiri won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Siver: Elusive strikervsTatsuya Kawajiri: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Dennis Siver wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Tatsuya Kawajiri wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Siver at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dennis Siver has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Siver

Red Corner

Tatsuya Kawajiri

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1491

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Siver

oldest →

vs Nam Phan · Dec 12

KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13

vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15

vs BJ Penn · Jun 17

latest

Tatsuya KawajiriL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Soriano · Jan 14

vs Clay Guida · Apr 14

vs Jason Knight · Dec 15

vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 16

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis SiverMetricTatsuya Kawajiri

3.87

Strikes / min

2.04

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.01

65%

Strike defense

50%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

3.63

65%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.20Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis SiverTatsuya Kawajiri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Siver(10 fights)Tatsuya Kawajiri(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.2|Blue -133.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -282.0|Blue +282.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis SiverTargetTatsuya Kawajiri

By target zone

22% acc · 45%

Head

48% acc · 68%

80% acc · 18%

Body

86% acc · 27%

80% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

34% acc · 91%

Distance

50% acc · 77%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Siver rounds

even

Tatsuya Kawajiri rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 2Tatsuya Kawajiri edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 3Tatsuya Kawajiri edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 60

Sig Strikes

22 / 39

35.3%

Sig Str %

56.7%

90 / 137

Total Strikes

47 / 68

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 14

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

8:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tatsuya Kawajiri	7 / 15	12 / 22	1 / 6	0
1	Dennis Siver	13 / 33	24 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Tatsuya Kawajiri	6 / 10	19 / 25	1 / 2	0
2	Dennis Siver	5 / 16	27 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Tatsuya Kawajiri	9 / 14	16 / 21	2 / 6	0
3	Dennis Siver	4 / 11	39 / 49	0 / 0	1

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Tatsuya Kawajiri

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6