← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dennis Siver won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1353

Dennis SivervsNam PhanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Dennis Siver won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Siver: Elusive strikervsNam Phan: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Dennis Siver wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Dennis Siver wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Siver at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Siver

Red Corner

Nam Phan

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1491

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Siver

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13

vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15

vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15

vs BJ Penn · Jun 17

latest

Nam PhanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Leonard Garcia · Oct 11

vs Jimy Hettes · Dec 11

vs Cole Miller · Aug 12

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Dec 13

vs Vaughan Lee · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis SiverMetricNam Phan

3.87

Strikes / min

4.52

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

65%

Strike defense

59%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.18

65%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.20Δ 3.23 — meaningful gap-2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis SiverNam Phan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Siver(10 fights)Nam Phan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.9|Blue -137.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis SiverTargetNam Phan

By target zone

42% acc · 71%

Head

18% acc · 71%

47% acc · 12%

Body

11% acc · 8%

88% acc · 17%

Leg

71% acc · 21%

By position

39% acc · 68%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

81% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Siver rounds

even

Nam Phan rounds

Round 1Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes63

Takedowns0

Control0:01

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control2:36

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control4:25

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

128 / 273

Sig Strikes

24 / 120

50%

Sig Str %

16.7%

222 / 389

Total Strikes

24 / 120

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nam Phan	15 / 66	15 / 66	0 / 0
1	Dennis Siver	63 / 140	63 / 140	0 / 2
2	Nam Phan	8 / 45	8 / 45	0 / 0
2	Dennis Siver	36 / 89	65 / 128	1 / 1
3	Nam Phan	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 0
3	Dennis Siver	29 / 44	94 / 121	1 / 1

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Nam Phan

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8