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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Dennis Siver
Elo1429
Donald Cerrone

Dennis SivervsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · Saturday, October 29, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:22

Style matchupDennis Siver: Elusive strikervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Dennis Siver has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Siver
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-235
(70%)
1491
Elo
1429
47
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Siver
oldest →
L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13
W
vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15
L
vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15
W
vs BJ Penn · Jun 17
latest
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20
L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20
L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis SiverMetricDonald Cerrone
3.87
Strikes / min
4.41
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
65%
Strike defense
53%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
1.16
65%
Takedown defense
73%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.20Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1557 vs 1555Strikes32.6 vs 51.0Takedowns0.4 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.33Form0.8 vs 1.0
Dennis SiverDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dennis Siver(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +62.1|Blue -62.1
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +43.0|Blue -43.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis SiverTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

6
46% acc · 50%
Head
5
31% acc · 56%
3
100% acc · 25%
Body
2
67% acc · 22%
3
60% acc · 25%
Leg
2
50% acc · 22%

By position

10
59% acc · 83%
Distance
7
44% acc · 78%
2
50% acc · 17%
Clinch
1
17% acc · 11%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Dennis Siver rounds
0
even
1
Donald Cerrone rounds
Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:38
Knockdowns0
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
12 / 21
Sig Strikes
9 / 23
57%
Sig Str %
39%
14 / 23
Total Strikes
9 / 23
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:38
Ctrl Time
0:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Donald Cerrone9 / 239 / 230 / 01
1Dennis Siver12 / 2114 / 230 / 20

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37