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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Dennis Siver won · U-DEC R3
Elo1491
Dennis Siver
Elo1490

Dennis SivervsDiego NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · Saturday, April 14, 2012Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Dennis Siver won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Siver: Elusive strikervsDiego Nunes: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Dennis Siver wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Dennis Siver wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Siver at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Siver
Red Corner
VS
Diego Nunes
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
1491
Elo
1490
47
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Siver
oldest →
L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13
W
vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15
L
vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15
W
vs BJ Penn · Jun 17
latest
Diego Nunes
oldest →
W
vs Mike Brown · Jan 11
L
vs Kenny Florian · Jun 11
W
vs Manvel Gamburyan · Dec 11
W
vs Bart Palaszewski · Oct 12
L
vs Nik Lentz · Jan 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis SiverMetricDiego Nunes
3.87
Strikes / min
2.72
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.59
65%
Strike defense
58%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
1.18
65%
Takedown defense
65%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.20Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1539 vs 1514Strikes31.0 vs 46.0Takedowns0.4 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.23 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.4
Dennis SiverDiego Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Dennis Siver(10 fights)Diego Nunes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +62.0|Blue -62.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis SiverTargetDiego Nunes

By target zone

31
22% acc · 46%
Head
11
19% acc · 22%
17
71% acc · 25%
Body
15
75% acc · 31%
20
56% acc · 29%
Leg
23
49% acc · 47%

By position

58
32% acc · 85%
Distance
35
33% acc · 71%
10
50% acc · 15%
Clinch
14
74% acc · 29%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Dennis Siver rounds
0
even
0
Diego Nunes rounds
Round 1Dennis Siver edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:05
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Dennis Siver edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Dennis Siver edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:28
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
68 / 203
Sig Strikes
49 / 125
33.3%
Sig Str %
38%
78 / 216
Total Strikes
49 / 125
0 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:33
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diego Nunes18 / 4018 / 400 / 00
1Dennis Siver21 / 5421 / 540 / 10
2Diego Nunes9 / 389 / 380 / 00
2Dennis Siver22 / 7022 / 700 / 20
3Diego Nunes22 / 4722 / 470 / 00
3Dennis Siver25 / 7935 / 920 / 30

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13

Diego Nunes

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6