← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dennis Siver won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1430

Dennis SivervsCharles RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Dennis Siver won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Siver: Elusive strikervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Dennis Siver wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Dennis Siver wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Siver at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dennis Siver has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dennis Siver has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Siver

Red Corner

Charles Rosa

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1491

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Siver

oldest →

vs Nam Phan · Dec 12

KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15

vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15

vs BJ Penn · Jun 17

latest

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis SiverMetricCharles Rosa

3.87

Strikes / min

3.08

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

65%

Strike defense

47%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

1.67

65%

Takedown defense

38%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.20Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis SiverCharles Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Siver(10 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.4|Blue -60.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis SiverTargetCharles Rosa

By target zone

31% acc · 67%

Head

21% acc · 68%

57% acc · 12%

Body

25% acc · 9%

88% acc · 21%

Leg

50% acc · 23%

By position

37% acc · 94%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Siver rounds

even

Charles Rosa rounds

Round 1Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:04

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:52

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 3Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:55

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 86

Sig Strikes

22 / 91

42.7%

Sig Str %

25%

109 / 171

Total Strikes

29 / 99

3 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:51

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Rosa	9 / 49	9 / 49	0 / 1	0
1	Dennis Siver	12 / 40	23 / 52	1 / 1	1
2	Charles Rosa	10 / 29	15 / 35	1 / 2	0
2	Dennis Siver	11 / 30	28 / 50	1 / 1	0
3	Charles Rosa	3 / 13	5 / 15	1 / 1	1
3	Dennis Siver	10 / 16	58 / 69	1 / 1	0

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13