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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Dennis Siver won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Dennis Siver
Elo1351
Andre Winner

Dennis SivervsAndre WinnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · Saturday, November 13, 2010Oberhausen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany

Official fight result

Dennis Siver won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:37

Model Prediction: Andre Winner wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Dennis Siver wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Winner at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dennis Siver has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Siver
Red Corner
VS
Andre Winner
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1491
Elo
1351
47
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Siver
oldest →
L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13
W
vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15
L
vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15
W
vs BJ Penn · Jun 17
latest
Andre WinnerL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rafaello Oliveira · Mar 10
L
vs Nik Lentz · Aug 10
L
vs Anthony Njokuani · Jul 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis SiverMetricAndre Winner
3.87
Strikes / min
2.52
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
65%
Strike defense
51%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
0.00
65%
Takedown defense
74%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.20Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes28.4 vs 35.3Takedowns0.4 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.22 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs -0.2
Dennis SiverAndre Winner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Dennis Siver(10 fights)Andre Winner(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.7|Blue -139.7
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis SiverTargetAndre Winner

By target zone

15
29% acc · 50%
Head
2
7% acc · 15%
4
67% acc · 13%
Body
5
71% acc · 38%
11
85% acc · 37%
Leg
6
60% acc · 46%

By position

25
41% acc · 83%
Distance
13
30% acc · 100%
1
33% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
4
57% acc · 13%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Dennis Siver rounds
0
even
0
Andre Winner rounds
Round 1Dennis Siver edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:34
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
30 / 71
Sig Strikes
13 / 44
42%
Sig Str %
29%
37 / 81
Total Strikes
13 / 44
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:34
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andre Winner13 / 4413 / 440 / 00
1Dennis Siver30 / 7137 / 810 / 11

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13

Andre Winner

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4