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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dennis Buzukja won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1468

Elo1465

Dennis BuzukjavsConnor MatthewsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Saturday, March 30, 2024Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Dennis Buzukja won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:22

Style matchupDennis Buzukja: Pressure fightervsConnor Matthews: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Connor Matthews wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Dennis Buzukja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Connor Matthews at -102 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dennis Buzukja enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Dennis Buzukja is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Connor Matthews has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Dennis Buzukja has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Buzukja

Red Corner

Connor Matthews

Blue Corner

-118

(54%)

Vegas Odds

-102

(50%)

1468

Elo

1465

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis BuzukjaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Woodson · Aug 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Nov 23

vs Francis Marshall · Aug 24

KOvs Marcio Barbosa · Apr 26

latest

Connor MatthewsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jose Delgado · Feb 25

SUBvs Yadier del Valle · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis BuzukjaMetricConnor Matthews

4.21

Strikes / min

4.82

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

6.06

48%

Strike defense

55%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

3.24

75%

Takedown defense

46%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58evenly matched on net striking-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis BuzukjaConnor Matthews

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Buzukja(5 fights)Connor Matthews(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis BuzukjaTargetConnor Matthews

By target zone

30% acc · 53%

Head

37% acc · 62%

53% acc · 22%

Body

52% acc · 23%

95% acc · 25%

Leg

90% acc · 15%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

43% acc · 95%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

33% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Buzukja rounds

even

Connor Matthews rounds

Round 1Dennis Buzukja edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Connor Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Dennis Buzukja edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 201

Sig Strikes

60 / 138

41.7%

Sig Str %

29.3%

84 / 202

Total Strikes

62 / 140

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Connor Matthews	24 / 58	24 / 58	0 / 0
1	Dennis Buzukja	38 / 85	38 / 85	0 / 0
2	Connor Matthews	36 / 76	38 / 78	1 / 3
2	Dennis Buzukja	37 / 98	38 / 99	0 / 0
3	Connor Matthews	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0
3	Dennis Buzukja	8 / 18	8 / 18	0 / 0

Dennis Buzukja

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Connor Matthews

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3