Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dennis Bermudez won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1352

Dennis BermudezvsTommy HaydenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · Saturday, August 11, 2012Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Dennis Bermudez won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:43

Style matchupDennis Bermudez: WrestlervsTommy Hayden: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Dennis Bermudez wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Dennis Bermudez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Bermudez at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dennis Bermudez has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tommy Hayden (53.5%).
Tommy Hayden has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Bermudez

Red Corner

Tommy Hayden

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1491

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Bermudez

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Feb 17

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 17

vs Andre Fili · Jan 18

vs Rick Glenn · Jul 18

vs Te Edwards · Jan 19

latest

Tommy Hayden

oldest →

SUBvs Fabricio Camoes · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis BermudezMetricTommy Hayden

4.42

Strikes / min

1.48

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

59%

Strike defense

55%

3.89

TDs / 15 min

3.42

82%

Takedown defense

66%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.35Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis BermudezTommy Hayden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Bermudez(10 fights)Tommy Hayden(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.8|Blue -139.8

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -106.0|Blue +106.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis BermudezTargetTommy Hayden

By target zone

46% acc · 100%

Head

26% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

33% acc · 50%

Distance

20% acc · 83%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

63% acc · 42%

Ground

50% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Bermudez rounds

even

Tommy Hayden rounds

Round 1Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:08

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 27

Sig Strikes

6 / 27

44%

Sig Str %

22%

16 / 32

Total Strikes

8 / 31

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tommy Hayden	6 / 27	8 / 31	0 / 3	0
1	Dennis Bermudez	12 / 27	16 / 32	1 / 2	2

Dennis Bermudez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Tommy Hayden

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2