Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dennis Bermudez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1358

Dennis BermudezvsTatsuya KawajiriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Dennis Bermudez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Bermudez: WrestlervsTatsuya Kawajiri: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tatsuya Kawajiri wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Dennis Bermudez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuya Kawajiri at +295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dennis Bermudez has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Bermudez

Red Corner

Tatsuya Kawajiri

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1491

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Bermudez

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Feb 17

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 17

vs Andre Fili · Jan 18

vs Rick Glenn · Jul 18

vs Te Edwards · Jan 19

latest

Tatsuya Kawajiri

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Soriano · Jan 14

vs Clay Guida · Apr 14

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 15

vs Jason Knight · Dec 15

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis BermudezMetricTatsuya Kawajiri

4.42

Strikes / min

2.04

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.01

59%

Strike defense

50%

3.89

TDs / 15 min

3.63

82%

Takedown defense

63%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.35Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis BermudezTatsuya Kawajiri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Bermudez(10 fights)Tatsuya Kawajiri(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.8|Blue -133.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +153.0|Blue -153.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis BermudezTargetTatsuya Kawajiri

By target zone

75% acc · 84%

Head

39% acc · 58%

71% acc · 8%

Body

60% acc · 25%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

67% acc · 17%

By position

41% acc · 18%

Distance

39% acc · 75%

78% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

98% acc · 70%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Bermudez rounds

even

Tatsuya Kawajiri rounds

Round 1Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:58

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control1:03

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:13Control

Round 3Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control0:20

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 80

Sig Strikes

12 / 26

73.3%

Sig Str %

46.7%

120 / 142

Total Strikes

27 / 41

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 7

87.5%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

4:21

Ctrl Time

7:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tatsuya Kawajiri	5 / 10	15 / 20	1 / 3	0
1	Dennis Bermudez	7 / 9	14 / 16	1 / 1	0
2	Tatsuya Kawajiri	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 3	0
2	Dennis Bermudez	40 / 47	66 / 75	0 / 0	1
3	Tatsuya Kawajiri	3 / 6	8 / 11	0 / 1	0
3	Dennis Bermudez	14 / 24	40 / 51	3 / 4	0

Dennis Bermudez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Tatsuya Kawajiri

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6