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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dennis Bermudez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1490

Dennis BermudezvsPablo GarzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Dennis Bermudez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Bermudez: WrestlervsPablo Garza: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Pablo Garza wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Dennis Bermudez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pablo Garza at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dennis Bermudez has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Pablo Garza has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Bermudez

Red Corner

Pablo Garza

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

6'1"

167.64 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Bermudez

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Feb 17

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 17

vs Andre Fili · Jan 18

vs Rick Glenn · Jul 18

vs Te Edwards · Jan 19

latest

Pablo Garza

oldest →

KOvs Fredson Paixao · Dec 10

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Apr 11

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 11

vs Mark Hominick · Nov 12

SUBvs Diego Brandao · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis BermudezMetricPablo Garza

4.42

Strikes / min

3.37

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

59%

Strike defense

50%

3.89

TDs / 15 min

0.94

82%

Takedown defense

15%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.35evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis BermudezPablo Garza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Bermudez(10 fights)Pablo Garza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis BermudezTargetPablo Garza

By target zone

48% acc · 73%

Head

37% acc · 63%

71% acc · 11%

Body

90% acc · 33%

78% acc · 16%

Leg

33% acc · 4%

By position

32% acc · 16%

Distance

33% acc · 30%

75% acc · 13%

Clinch

71% acc · 19%

58% acc · 71%

Ground

50% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Bermudez rounds

even

Pablo Garza rounds

Round 1Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control4:01

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns3

Control4:32

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:24

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 85

Sig Strikes

27 / 59

51.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

114 / 166

Total Strikes

57 / 93

8 / 9

TDs

0 / 2

91.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

12:57

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pablo Garza	13 / 27	17 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Dennis Bermudez	12 / 24	24 / 39	4 / 4	0
2	Pablo Garza	9 / 15	21 / 28	0 / 1	0
2	Dennis Bermudez	21 / 34	51 / 67	3 / 4	0
3	Pablo Garza	5 / 17	19 / 34	0 / 1	0
3	Dennis Bermudez	12 / 27	39 / 60	1 / 1	1

Dennis Bermudez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Pablo Garza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6