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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Dennis Bermudez won · S-DEC R3
Elo1491
Elo1490

Dennis BermudezvsMatt GriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Dennis Bermudez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Bermudez: WrestlervsMatt Grice: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Dennis Bermudez wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Dennis Bermudez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Bermudez at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Grice has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Bermudez
Red Corner
VS
Matt Grice
Blue Corner
-410
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
1491
Elo
1490
39
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Bermudez
oldest →
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Feb 17
L
vs Darren Elkins · Jul 17
L
vs Andre Fili · Jan 18
L
vs Rick Glenn · Jul 18
W
vs Te Edwards · Jan 19
latest
Matt Grice
oldest →
L
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 11
W
vs Leonard Garcia · Jun 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis BermudezMetricMatt Grice
4.42
Strikes / min
4.09
3.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.69
59%
Strike defense
56%
3.89
TDs / 15 min
2.19
82%
Takedown defense
82%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.35evenly matched on net striking+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1500Strikes27.3 vs 28.3Takedowns3.3 vs 1.3Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.33Form0.6 vs 0.4
Dennis BermudezMatt Grice

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dennis Bermudez(10 fights)Matt Grice(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -64.0|Blue +64.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis BermudezTargetMatt Grice

By target zone

89
53% acc · 74%
Head
49
41% acc · 60%
16
64% acc · 13%
Body
17
71% acc · 21%
15
88% acc · 13%
Leg
16
89% acc · 20%

By position

42
41% acc · 35%
Distance
39
43% acc · 48%
37
66% acc · 31%
Clinch
41
61% acc · 50%
41
82% acc · 34%
Ground
2
40% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Dennis Bermudez rounds
1
even
1
Matt Grice rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns0
Control1:43
Knockdowns0
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Matt Grice edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control1:13
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:03Control
Round 3Dennis Bermudez edged it
Sig. strikes66
Takedowns0
Control2:28
Knockdowns1
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
1
120 / 209
Sig Strikes
82 / 162
52.3%
Sig Str %
50.3%
181 / 277
Total Strikes
91 / 171
0 / 9
TDs
1 / 12
0%
TD %
6.7%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:24
Ctrl Time
2:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Matt Grice35 / 5839 / 620 / 40
1Dennis Bermudez41 / 6660 / 850 / 41
2Matt Grice24 / 4827 / 511 / 50
2Dennis Bermudez13 / 4523 / 600 / 31
3Matt Grice23 / 5625 / 580 / 30
3Dennis Bermudez66 / 9898 / 1320 / 20

Dennis Bermudez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Matt Grice

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3