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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1473

Dennis BermudezvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:32

Style matchupDennis Bermudez: WrestlervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Dennis Bermudez wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Bermudez at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Dennis Bermudez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jeremy Stephens has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Bermudez

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1491

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Bermudez

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Feb 17

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 17

vs Andre Fili · Jan 18

vs Rick Glenn · Jul 18

vs Te Edwards · Jan 19

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis BermudezMetricJeremy Stephens

4.42

Strikes / min

3.13

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

59%

Strike defense

57%

3.89

TDs / 15 min

1.10

82%

Takedown defense

61%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.35Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis BermudezJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Bermudez(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.8|Blue -18.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis BermudezTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

36% acc · 66%

Head

46% acc · 68%

50% acc · 11%

Body

80% acc · 11%

80% acc · 23%

Leg

67% acc · 21%

By position

40% acc · 77%

Distance

42% acc · 58%

36% acc · 11%

Clinch

75% acc · 24%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

88% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Bermudez rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control3:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:34

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 82

Sig Strikes

38 / 73

41%

Sig Str %

56.7%

66 / 116

Total Strikes

39 / 74

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 2

12.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:55

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Stephens	7 / 17	8 / 18	0 / 0
1	Dennis Bermudez	18 / 32	43 / 59	1 / 4
2	Jeremy Stephens	22 / 45	22 / 45	0 / 2
2	Dennis Bermudez	15 / 44	21 / 51	0 / 2
3	Jeremy Stephens	9 / 11	9 / 11	0 / 0
3	Dennis Bermudez	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0

Dennis Bermudez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27