← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1499

Dennis BermudezvsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Bermudez: WrestlervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Dennis Bermudez wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Bermudez at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dennis Bermudez has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Darren Elkins has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Bermudez

Red Corner

Darren Elkins

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1491

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Bermudez

oldest →

vs Rony Jason · Aug 16

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Feb 17

vs Andre Fili · Jan 18

vs Rick Glenn · Jul 18

vs Te Edwards · Jan 19

latest

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis BermudezMetricDarren Elkins

4.42

Strikes / min

3.40

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

59%

Strike defense

51%

3.89

TDs / 15 min

2.87

82%

Takedown defense

56%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.35Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis BermudezDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Bermudez(10 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.1|Blue +8.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis BermudezTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

31% acc · 57%

Head

35% acc · 60%

86% acc · 26%

Body

77% acc · 34%

92% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

38% acc · 68%

Distance

32% acc · 49%

65% acc · 32%

Clinch

75% acc · 47%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Bermudez rounds

even

Darren Elkins rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:19

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:18Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:30

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 3Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:49

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 160

Sig Strikes

70 / 154

42%

Sig Str %

44.7%

101 / 194

Total Strikes

99 / 189

1 / 6

TDs

3 / 10

11%

TD %

21.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:38

Ctrl Time

4:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Elkins	15 / 36	30 / 55	2 / 5	1
1	Dennis Bermudez	16 / 41	19 / 45	0 / 2	0
2	Darren Elkins	27 / 53	36 / 64	1 / 4	1
2	Dennis Bermudez	19 / 45	27 / 54	1 / 3	0
3	Darren Elkins	28 / 65	33 / 70	0 / 1	0
3	Dennis Bermudez	34 / 74	55 / 95	0 / 1	0

Dennis Bermudez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30