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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Denis Tiuliulin won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1482

Elo1488

Denis TiuliulinvsJamie PickettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Denis Tiuliulin won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:52

Style matchupDenis Tiuliulin: Well-roundedvsJamie Pickett: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Denis Tiuliulin wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Denis Tiuliulin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Denis Tiuliulin at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Denis Tiuliulin enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jamie Pickett enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jamie Pickett has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Denis Tiuliulin

Red Corner

Jamie Pickett

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1482

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Denis TiuliulinL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Aliaskhab Khizriev · Mar 22

SUBvs JunYong Park · Feb 23

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Aug 23

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Nov 23

vs Sedriques Dumas · Aug 24

latest

Jamie PickettL4 streak

oldest →

vs Joseph Holmes · Jan 22

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Feb 22

SUBvs Bo Nickal · Mar 23

vs Josh Fremd · Aug 23

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Denis TiuliulinMetricJamie Pickett

3.61

Strikes / min

2.65

5.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

38%

Strike defense

50%

0.96

TDs / 15 min

1.26

72%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.62evenly matched on net striking-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Denis TiuliulinJamie Pickett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Denis Tiuliulin(6 fights)Jamie Pickett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.7|Blue +6.7

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Denis TiuliulinTargetJamie Pickett

By target zone

40% acc · 73%

Head

49% acc · 73%

68% acc · 26%

Body

72% acc · 22%

50% acc · 1%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

39% acc · 71%

Distance

54% acc · 93%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

46% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Denis Tiuliulin rounds

even

Jamie Pickett rounds

Round 1Jamie Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Denis Tiuliulin edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:59

Knockdowns2

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 161

Sig Strikes

60 / 111

44%

Sig Str %

53.5%

87 / 178

Total Strikes

63 / 114

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jamie Pickett	35 / 60	37 / 62	0 / 3
1	Denis Tiuliulin	22 / 76	28 / 82	0 / 1
2	Jamie Pickett	25 / 51	26 / 52	0 / 2
2	Denis Tiuliulin	51 / 85	59 / 96	0 / 0

Denis Tiuliulin

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Jamie Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9