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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Demian Maia won · U-DEC R5
Elo1402
Demian Maia
Elo1491

Demian MaiavsRyan LaFlareUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsRyan LaFlare: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan LaFlare wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan LaFlare at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Ryan LaFlare
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1402
Elo
1491
48
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19
W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19
W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21
latest
Ryan LaFlare
oldest →
W
vs Mike Pierce · Dec 15
W
vs Roan Carneiro · Feb 17
L
KOvs Alex Oliveira · Jul 17
W
vs Alex Garcia · Apr 18
L
KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricRyan LaFlare
1.80
Strikes / min
2.89
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
1.86
63%
Strike defense
63%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
2.13
61%
Takedown defense
58%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1540 vs 1572Strikes20.9 vs 61.0Takedowns2.3 vs 4.8Sub Atts0.89 vs 0.50Form0.1 vs 1.0
Demian MaiaRyan LaFlare

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Demian Maia(10 fights)Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -88.9|Blue +88.9
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetRyan LaFlare

By target zone

32
49% acc · 89%
Head
8
13% acc · 32%
3
100% acc · 8%
Body
5
33% acc · 20%
1
100% acc · 3%
Leg
12
75% acc · 48%

By position

12
31% acc · 33%
Distance
24
27% acc · 96%
0
Clinch
0
24
80% acc · 67%
Ground
1
33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Demian Maia rounds
0
even
1
Ryan LaFlare rounds
Round 1Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control3:47
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control3:15
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:20
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control
Round 4Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:29
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Ryan LaFlare edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:57
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:52Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
36 / 69
Sig Strikes
25 / 91
51%
Sig Str %
21.4%
76 / 121
Total Strikes
54 / 121
5 / 14
TDs
0 / 0
59.4%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
13:48
Ctrl Time
1:37

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ryan LaFlare1 / 131 / 130 / 00
1Demian Maia11 / 1821 / 291 / 10
2Ryan LaFlare2 / 1210 / 200 / 00
2Demian Maia7 / 1020 / 241 / 21
3Ryan LaFlare4 / 1514 / 250 / 00
3Demian Maia3 / 1110 / 231 / 30
4Demian Maia10 / 1619 / 301 / 11
4Ryan LaFlare2 / 118 / 170 / 00
5Ryan LaFlare16 / 4021 / 460 / 00
5Demian Maia5 / 146 / 151 / 70

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26

Ryan LaFlare

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10