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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Demian Maia won · Decision R3
Elo1402
Demian Maia
Elo1492

Demian MaiavsRocco MartinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, June 29, 2019Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Rocco Martin
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1402
Elo
1492
48
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kamaru Usman · May 18
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19
W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21
latest
Rocco Martin
oldest →
W
DECvs Ramazan Emeev · Nov 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricRocco Martin
1.80
Strikes / min
—
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
—
63%
Strike defense
—
2.49
TDs / 15 min
—
61%
Takedown defense
—
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1603 vs 1500Strikes1.8 vs 2.7Takedowns2.5 vs 0.7Sub Atts1.00 vs 1.10Form0.1 vs 0.0
Demian MaiaRocco Martin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Demian Maia(10 fights)Rocco Martin(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -89.6|Blue +89.6
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26

Rocco Martin

No profile data.