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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Demian Maia won · SUB R1
Elo1402
Demian Maia
Elo1491
Rick Story

Demian MaiavsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsRick Story: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Rick Story
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1402
Elo
1491
48
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19
W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19
W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21
latest
Rick Story
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14
W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14
W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricRick Story
1.80
Strikes / min
3.80
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
63%
Strike defense
62%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
2.53
61%
Takedown defense
63%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1523 vs 1544Strikes19.7 vs 43.8Takedowns1.9 vs 2.9Sub Atts0.93 vs 1.30Form0.3 vs 0.3
Demian MaiaRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Demian Maia(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -88.2|Blue +88.2
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -15.0|Blue +15.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetRick Story

By target zone

4
57% acc · 80%
Head
1
33% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 20%
Body
2
100% acc · 67%
0
Leg
0

By position

1
100% acc · 20%
Distance
2
50% acc · 67%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 33%
4
57% acc · 80%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Demian Maia rounds
0
even
0
Rick Story rounds
Round 1Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns3
Control2:14
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 8
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
62%
Sig Str %
60%
9 / 12
Total Strikes
10 / 12
3 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
60%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:14
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rick Story3 / 510 / 120 / 00
1Demian Maia5 / 89 / 123 / 51

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16