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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · SUB R2

Elo1402

Elo1505

Demian MaiavsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · Saturday, August 1, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:52

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsNeil Magny: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Demian Maia has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Neil Magny has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1402

Elo

1505

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricNeil Magny

1.80

Strikes / min

3.40

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

63%

Strike defense

51%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

2.17

61%

Takedown defense

55%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.0|Blue +103.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

76% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

76% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:46

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control2:42

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 17

Sig Strikes

0 / 4

40.5%

Sig Str %

56 / 68

Total Strikes

11 / 16

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:28

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Neil Magny	0 / 2	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Demian Maia	13 / 16	45 / 54	1 / 1	0
2	Neil Magny	0 / 2	4 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Demian Maia	0 / 1	11 / 14	1 / 1	1

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37