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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · SUB R3

Elo1402

Elo1499

Demian MaiavsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · Saturday, May 14, 2016Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:31

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Matt Brown

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1402

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricMatt Brown

1.80

Strikes / min

3.76

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

63%

Strike defense

55%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

1.68

61%

Takedown defense

63%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -96.2|Blue +96.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetMatt Brown

By target zone

85% acc · 100%

Head

45% acc · 90%

Body

0% acc

Leg

50% acc · 10%

By position

67% acc · 12%

Distance

17% acc · 20%

Clinch

0% acc

88% acc · 88%

Ground

80% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Matt Brown rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control3:49

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control4:28

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control3:46

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 20

Sig Strikes

10 / 23

84.5%

Sig Str %

44%

91 / 110

Total Strikes

29 / 46

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

38.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:03

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Brown	2 / 8	6 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Demian Maia	0 / 0	21 / 31	1 / 2	0
2	Matt Brown	4 / 7	11 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Demian Maia	9 / 11	38 / 44	2 / 3	0
3	Matt Brown	4 / 8	12 / 17	0 / 0	0
3	Demian Maia	8 / 9	32 / 35	0 / 5	2

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25