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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1402

Elo1351

Demian MaiavsMario MirandaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mario Miranda wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Miranda at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Demian Maia has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Mario Miranda

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1402

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Mario Miranda

oldest →

KOvs Gerald Harris · Mar 10

KOvs David Loiseau · Jun 10

vs Aaron Simpson · Mar 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricMario Miranda

1.80

Strikes / min

1.96

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.46

63%

Strike defense

36%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

1.02

61%

Takedown defense

54%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaMario Miranda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Mario Miranda(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +51.4|Blue -51.4

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetMario Miranda

By target zone

58% acc · 70%

Head

19% acc · 36%

56% acc · 17%

Body

40% acc · 14%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

78% acc · 50%

By position

38% acc · 20%

Distance

35% acc · 64%

38% acc · 10%

Clinch

25% acc · 7%

84% acc · 70%

Ground

36% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Mario Miranda rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:40

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:07

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:05

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 49

Sig Strikes

14 / 41

62.3%

Sig Str %

37%

104 / 146

Total Strikes

29 / 60

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:52

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mario Miranda	5 / 21	6 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Demian Maia	9 / 19	29 / 52	2 / 2	0
2	Mario Miranda	3 / 7	13 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Demian Maia	13 / 19	47 / 60	1 / 2	0
3	Mario Miranda	6 / 13	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Demian Maia	8 / 11	28 / 34	2 / 3	1

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Mario Miranda

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4