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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · SUB R1

Elo1402

Elo1492

Demian MaiavsLyman GoodUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsLyman Good: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Lyman Good

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1402

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · May 18

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Lyman Good

oldest →

KOvs Andrew Craig · Jul 15

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jul 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Nov 18

KOvs Chance Rencountre · Nov 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricLyman Good

1.80

Strikes / min

5.34

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

63%

Strike defense

63%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

0.27

61%

Takedown defense

75%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaLyman Good

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Lyman Good(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -90.1|Blue +90.1

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetLyman Good

By target zone

0% acc

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Lyman Good rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control2:12

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

0 / 2

Sig Str %

8 / 9

Total Strikes

0 / 2

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lyman Good	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Demian Maia	0 / 1	8 / 9	2 / 4	2

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Lyman Good

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6