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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R5
Elo1402
Demian Maia
Elo1489
Kamaru Usman editorial illustration

Demian MaiavsKamaru UsmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · Saturday, May 19, 2018Santiago, Chile

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsKamaru Usman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kamaru Usman has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).
  • Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Kamaru Usman
Blue Corner
+415
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-525
(84%)
1402
Elo
1489
48
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19
W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19
W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21
latest
Kamaru Usman
oldest →
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23
L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23
W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25
L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricKamaru Usman
1.80
Strikes / min
4.16
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
63%
Strike defense
55%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
2.79
61%
Takedown defense
89%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap+1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1606 vs 1623Strikes22.8 vs 47.3Takedowns2.2 vs 4.0Sub Atts0.89 vs 0.29Form-0.1 vs 1.0
Demian MaiaKamaru Usman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Demian Maia(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -87.1|Blue +87.1
Recent Form
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +78.0|Blue -78.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetKamaru Usman

By target zone

26
31% acc · 96%
Head
49
27% acc · 74%
1
50% acc · 4%
Body
4
33% acc · 6%
0
Leg
13
81% acc · 20%

By position

25
29% acc · 93%
Distance
55
29% acc · 83%
1
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
1
20% acc · 2%
1
100% acc · 4%
Ground
10
59% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Demian Maia rounds
0
even
5
Kamaru Usman rounds
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control2:01
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:37Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:31Control
1Knockdowns
Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:44Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
27 / 87
Sig Strikes
66 / 209
33.8%
Sig Str %
32.4%
33 / 94
Total Strikes
97 / 244
0 / 15
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:01
Ctrl Time
4:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kamaru Usman12 / 2913 / 300 / 00
1Demian Maia5 / 1210 / 170 / 10
2Kamaru Usman12 / 4716 / 520 / 00
2Demian Maia7 / 188 / 200 / 40
3Kamaru Usman13 / 5316 / 560 / 00
3Demian Maia4 / 254 / 250 / 40
4Demian Maia4 / 94 / 90 / 30
4Kamaru Usman16 / 4232 / 580 / 00
5Kamaru Usman13 / 3820 / 480 / 00
5Demian Maia7 / 237 / 230 / 30

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20