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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1402

Elo1352

Demian MaiavsJorge SantiagoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(76.9%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Jorge Santiago

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1402

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Jorge SantiagoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brian Stann · May 11

vs Gunnar Nelson · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricJorge Santiago

1.80

Strikes / min

1.69

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

63%

Strike defense

56%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

0.58

61%

Takedown defense

52%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaJorge Santiago

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Jorge Santiago(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +50.4|Blue -50.4

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetJorge Santiago

By target zone

28% acc · 67%

Head

20% acc · 50%

83% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 11%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

88% acc · 39%

By position

22% acc · 42%

Distance

31% acc · 89%

71% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

60% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Jorge Santiago rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control2:30

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:55

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:50

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 67

Sig Strikes

18 / 56

37.3%

Sig Str %

33.3%

95 / 159

Total Strikes

29 / 70

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

60%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:15

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Santiago	7 / 21	15 / 29	0 / 0
1	Demian Maia	6 / 25	28 / 51	2 / 3
2	Jorge Santiago	6 / 23	8 / 27	0 / 0
2	Demian Maia	9 / 25	30 / 55	1 / 1
3	Jorge Santiago	5 / 12	6 / 14	0 / 1
3	Demian Maia	9 / 17	37 / 53	1 / 7

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Jorge Santiago

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3