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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · S-DEC R3

Elo1402

Elo1456

Demian MaiavsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, May 13, 2017Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1402

Elo

1456

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricJorge Masvidal

1.80

Strikes / min

4.05

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

63%

Strike defense

64%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

1.38

61%

Takedown defense

72%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.9|Blue +53.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

59% acc · 96%

Head

56% acc · 69%

Body

78% acc · 18%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

83% acc · 13%

By position

18% acc · 9%

Distance

52% acc · 38%

75% acc · 26%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

79% acc · 65%

Ground

64% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns3

Control3:50

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:37

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:27

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 38

Sig Strikes

39 / 63

62.7%

Sig Str %

60.7%

67 / 93

Total Strikes

55 / 80

4 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

53.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:54

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	19 / 29	24 / 34	0 / 0
1	Demian Maia	6 / 8	35 / 43	3 / 5
2	Jorge Masvidal	11 / 18	15 / 22	0 / 0
2	Demian Maia	9 / 16	12 / 22	0 / 6
3	Jorge Masvidal	9 / 16	16 / 24	0 / 0
3	Demian Maia	8 / 14	20 / 28	1 / 1

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22