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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Jake Shields won · S-DEC R5

Elo1402

Elo1490

Demian MaiavsJake ShieldsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Jake Shields won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsJake Shields: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Jake Shields wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at -355 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Demian Maia has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Jake Shields

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1402

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Jake Shields

oldest →

vs Georges St-Pierre · Apr 11

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Sep 11

vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Feb 12

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 13

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricJake Shields

1.80

Strikes / min

2.45

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

1.80

63%

Strike defense

56%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

2.83

61%

Takedown defense

35%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaJake Shields

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Jake Shields(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -87.9|Blue +87.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetJake Shields

By target zone

25% acc · 63%

Head

22% acc · 54%

62% acc · 33%

Body

38% acc · 9%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

76% acc · 37%

By position

23% acc · 54%

Distance

22% acc · 60%

58% acc · 29%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

67% acc · 17%

Ground

93% acc · 37%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Jake Shields rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control2:13

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:28Control

Round 2Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:16

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:20Control

Round 3Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:50

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 4Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:40

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:20

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 75

Sig Strikes

35 / 112

29%

Sig Str %

42.2%

98 / 160

Total Strikes

97 / 188

3 / 7

TDs

1 / 12

33.3%

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

5:19

Ctrl Time

11:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Shields	6 / 8	20 / 25	0 / 1
1	Demian Maia	2 / 4	19 / 24	2 / 4
2	Jake Shields	9 / 15	33 / 43	1 / 2
2	Demian Maia	0 / 2	5 / 7	0 / 1
3	Jake Shields	8 / 21	28 / 48	0 / 1
3	Demian Maia	6 / 18	22 / 37	1 / 2
4	Demian Maia	6 / 19	36 / 54	0 / 0
4	Jake Shields	4 / 17	6 / 19	0 / 4
5	Jake Shields	8 / 51	10 / 53	0 / 4
5	Demian Maia	10 / 32	16 / 38	0 / 0

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Jake Shields

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7