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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1402

Elo1497

Demian MaiavsGunnar NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsGunnar Nelson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gunnar Nelson at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Demian Maia has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Gunnar Nelson

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1402

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricGunnar Nelson

1.80

Strikes / min

1.77

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

63%

Strike defense

48%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

2.00

61%

Takedown defense

68%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaGunnar Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.2|Blue +94.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetGunnar Nelson

By target zone

80% acc · 96%

Head

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Body

Leg

By position

75% acc · 6%

Distance

50% acc · 50%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

80% acc · 85%

Ground

50% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Gunnar Nelson rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control3:15

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:32

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 3Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:09

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 58

Sig Strikes

2 / 4

82.3%

Sig Str %

50%

193 / 229

Total Strikes

7 / 10

2 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

44.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

10:56

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gunnar Nelson	1 / 2	4 / 6	1 / 1	0
1	Demian Maia	16 / 21	66 / 81	0 / 4	1
2	Gunnar Nelson	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
2	Demian Maia	19 / 24	55 / 66	1 / 3	0
3	Gunnar Nelson	0 / 1	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Demian Maia	12 / 13	72 / 82	1 / 1	0

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16