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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Colby Covington won · U-DEC R3
Elo1402
Demian Maia
Elo1491
Colby Covington

Demian MaiavsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsColby Covington: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
1402
Elo
1491
48
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19
W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19
W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21
latest
Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricColby Covington
1.80
Strikes / min
3.81
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
63%
Strike defense
54%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
3.64
61%
Takedown defense
68%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1626 vs 1607Strikes21.6 vs 28.8Takedowns2.3 vs 5.1Sub Atts0.92 vs 0.25Form0.3 vs 0.9
Demian MaiaColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Demian Maia(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -88.8|Blue +88.8
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetColby Covington

By target zone

53
36% acc · 100%
Head
65
23% acc · 74%
0
0% acc
Body
1
25% acc · 1%
0
0% acc
Leg
22
81% acc · 25%

By position

51
34% acc · 96%
Distance
81
27% acc · 92%
2
67% acc · 4%
Clinch
4
50% acc · 5%
0
Ground
3
60% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Demian Maia rounds
0
even
3
Colby Covington rounds
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:02
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 2Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
53 / 151
Sig Strikes
88 / 317
32.7%
Sig Str %
27%
59 / 157
Total Strikes
121 / 351
0 / 13
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
1:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Colby Covington37 / 12544 / 1320 / 00
1Demian Maia29 / 6631 / 680 / 20
2Colby Covington22 / 8325 / 860 / 00
2Demian Maia11 / 3812 / 390 / 60
3Colby Covington29 / 10952 / 1330 / 00
3Demian Maia13 / 4716 / 500 / 50

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17