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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Chris Weidman won · U-DEC R3
Elo1402
Demian Maia
Elo1494
Chris Weidman

Demian MaiavsChris WeidmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · Saturday, January 28, 2012Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsChris Weidman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at -152 American odds

+$66 profit

$166 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Demian Maia has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
  • Chris Weidman has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Chris Weidman
Blue Corner
+142
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-152
(60%)
1402
Elo
1494
48
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19
W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19
W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21
latest
Chris Weidman
oldest →
W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21
L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricChris Weidman
1.80
Strikes / min
3.11
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.37
63%
Strike defense
51%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
3.27
61%
Takedown defense
72%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1553Strikes18.7 vs 18.3Takedowns2.1 vs 2.3Sub Atts1.08 vs 0.67Form0.3 vs 1.0
Demian MaiaChris Weidman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Demian Maia(10 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -92.1|Blue +92.1
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetChris Weidman

By target zone

35
24% acc · 69%
Head
43
30% acc · 74%
14
70% acc · 27%
Body
10
67% acc · 17%
2
50% acc · 4%
Leg
5
83% acc · 9%

By position

39
27% acc · 76%
Distance
49
33% acc · 84%
12
46% acc · 24%
Clinch
7
47% acc · 12%
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Demian Maia rounds
0
even
3
Chris Weidman rounds
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 2Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 3Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
51 / 169
Sig Strikes
58 / 166
29.7%
Sig Str %
35%
60 / 178
Total Strikes
68 / 178
0 / 7
TDs
4 / 6
0%
TD %
83.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Weidman14 / 6015 / 611 / 10
1Demian Maia14 / 5314 / 530 / 00
2Chris Weidman16 / 3917 / 402 / 40
2Demian Maia16 / 5122 / 570 / 10
3Chris Weidman28 / 6736 / 771 / 10
3Demian Maia21 / 6524 / 680 / 60

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20