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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Demian Maia won · SUB R1
Elo1402
Demian Maia
Elo1494
Carlos Condit

Demian MaiavsCarlos ConditUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · Saturday, August 27, 2016Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:52

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsCarlos Condit: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Demian Maia has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Condit
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1402
Elo
1494
48
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19
W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19
W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21
latest
Carlos Condit
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18
W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20
W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21
L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricCarlos Condit
1.80
Strikes / min
3.66
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
63%
Strike defense
55%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
0.59
61%
Takedown defense
38%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1615 vs 1536Strikes22.2 vs 63.4Takedowns2.4 vs 0.5Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.75Form1.0 vs -0.3
Demian MaiaCarlos Condit

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Demian Maia(10 fights)Carlos Condit(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -91.2|Blue +91.2
Recent Form
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetCarlos Condit

By target zone

1
100% acc · 100%
Head
1
20% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

0
Distance
1
20% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 100%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Demian Maia rounds
0
even
0
Carlos Condit rounds
Round 1Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control1:19
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 1
Sig Strikes
1 / 6
100%
Sig Str %
16%
5 / 5
Total Strikes
1 / 6
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:19
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Condit1 / 61 / 60 / 00
1Demian Maia1 / 15 / 51 / 11

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17